Times are a changin’ – Walking in time of weather extremes

“Changes in climate can potentially shape the environment in which we operate and the missions we are required to do.”

– Department of Defense Climate-Related Risk to DoD Infrastructure Initial Vulnerability Assessment Survey (SLVAS) Report, January 2018

The famously liberal agency known as the U.S. Department of Defense conducted an extensive study on how climate change will impact its operations. Military infrastructure is already being affected, and the military will increasingly deploy personnel to repair that infrastructure, respond to humanitarian crises, and engage in conflict zones shaped by climate-related instability. In short, climate events mean billions, if not trillions, of additional dollars spent over time.

Call it climate change, cyclic weather patterns, extreme weather, or just bad juju, the military is planning, strategizing, and adjusting. It’s a conservative but pragmatic institution. Blood and treasure tend to shift the conversation away from performative rhetoric and into action.

And while the scale is smaller, how we recreate in the outdoors will change for similar reasons.

Originally written in 2018.
Revised in 2020.
Then again in 2022.
And now once more in 2025.
Sigh.

Consider some items in recent years:

• Stage 3 (total closure) fire restrictions in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

• Stage 2 (no open flames) restrictions make those who long for the romance of the campfire look elsewhere.

• Excessive smoke is present in outdoor areas that are currently open.

• Heatwave warning and advisory for people in the Northeast. The excessive humidity is making the situation even more dangerous for outdoor recreationists.

• The historic and famed Philmont Scout Ranch is canceling all summer backcountry programs for the first time. Ever.

• Fast runoff impacting water levels for whitewater enthusiasts

• And too many more to list since I wrote this article back in 2018

Peering into the Magic Eight Ball yet again, it seems that how we recreate in the outdoors will drastically change in the immediate years ahead, a topic I’ve touched upon before. However, this summer has ingrained the topic even more deeply into my mind.

This humble article can’t cover all the facets of this extensive topic. An ambitious person could easily write a Ph.D.-level paper on this subject.

I am not that person.

UPDATE 2020: I wrote this article two years ago about the challenges outdoor people face with the changing climate. Unfortunately, the piece held up as I looked at the smoke in my desert town. And much worse in California by leaps and bounds. 

What did I not predict? How a global pandemic affects travel, economic resources, and the effectiveness of our firefighters and first responders outdoors.

But a few main points immediately come to mind:

• The small long-distance hiking community will have to think long and hard about what constitutes a “real” thru-hike. Perhaps a minor issue in the grand scheme, but a topic people are passionate about. And a microcosm of what is ahead. Meaning people will need flexibility in planning and defining their outdoor experience.

If an area is more or less closed indefinitely, is a thru-hike invalidated?

Is it worth road-walking an area with excessive smoke just to claim completeness of a hike?

Does taking a shuttle around the closed-off area make your hike less somehow?

Is flip-flopping to avoid excessively snowy, smoky, or closed areas and returning later a perfectly acceptable thru-hiking strategy?

I know my answer (hike, have fun, and be safe), but I know others feel very different. Changing weather patterns may change other minds, though.

DENVER, CO – MARCH 19: Fire crews fight a wildfire from the air in Sunshine Canyon on March 19, 2017, in Boulder, Colorado. More than 1,000 homes have been evacuated west of Boulder due to the fire. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post)

• Fewer dollars for maintenance, infrastructure, personnel, and equipment. The USFS budget is becoming vastly depleted by all the firefighting in recent years. The same problems plaguing the US military due to climatic issues are plaguing the USFS, too. With a fraction of the budget versus the military, of course. BLM, NPS, state, county, and other local agencies have similar issues. Fewer dollars for non-firefighting priorities means other projects go by the wayside.

• Poor air quality makes time spent outdoors difficult, if not downright dangerous; All that smoke makes breathing difficult. And too much smoke means short-term and possibly long-term health conditions. Esp. If you are already immunocompromised.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A bit smoky on the #greatdividetrail Looks like there is another fire closure a bit south.:( Taking a zero-day tomorrow to figure out an slt route. Oh, and rest. Drink beer. Eat food. Lots of it! .. #hiking #backpacking #canada #rockies

A post shared by Paul Mags (@pmagsco) on Aug 14, 2018 at 4:34pm PDT

• Outdoor plans change, and people have to scramble. It’s tough to plan a hiking trip, rafting jaunt, or camping trip if the destination has a good chance of being closed months after you make your initial plans. Not everyone has the luxury of making new flight plans, changing when and where to do a multi-week excursion, or driving to an alternative location.

• The local economies will take a hit. People have changed their camping plans due to the smoke and fire restrictions, never mind the closures. Naturally, even with no fires, heat waves cause people to recreate less and stay in the cities. And if the water levels are low, so much for rafting trips. That means fewer people using restaurants, lodging, local services, etc. A season or two *might* be able to be weathered. In the long term? Places close, a town loses a good chunk of its economic base, and the services an outdoor recreationist needs no longer exist in the semi-ghost town.

• More tropical storms and hurricanes will cause flooding, blowdowns, and other damage. This could result in increased volunteer hours or funds for trail repairs, as well as trail closures of varying lengths, and damage to infrastructure along the routes, including shelters and ranger stations. And again, the areas that depend upon outdoor recreation for their economy will suffer financially.

From Appalachian Online

• Excessive fires mean much less ground cover. And possible floods. Floods are often the second punch of the wildfires. Again, fewer dollars for other projects. And a hit on the local economy for months, if not years.

Downtown Boulder. Sept 2013.

• Fires, retreating glaciers, floods, and other climate-related conditions alter the landscape. The draw for people coming to a park, wilderness area, or scenic area becomes less, in addition to the more challenging use of the outdoor space. And, to emphasize a theme, the region’s local economy is affected.

• Drought conditions can and have closed down ski areas—another vicious economic cycle for many areas relying heavily on the “New West” recreation economy.

Ski Rio in New Mexico. From CO Ski History.

• Wildfires make timber harvesting more expensive and cause lumber prices to rise. Among other resources. Even from a non-outdoor recreationist standpoint, the climatic shifts where we recreate impact the overall economy. Higher costs to access the wood or other resources ultimately result in more expensive products made from these resources.

***

Times changin’gin’. And so are the weather, the conditions, and where we hike. A wise outdoor recreationist will follow the Pentagon’s example and acknowledge the New Normal and be flexible with their planning. And think of what it means to them personally in how they make plans in the backcountry.

Pack Creek Fire, La Sal Mountains – Moab, UT June 2021

UPDATE 2022 – This article came to mind with heat waves, fires, and flooding in outdoor areas. Sigh. Along with some articles I wrote since I first published this article back in 2018:

• Ending campfire romanticism – I posit that it’s time to end backcountry campfires. Don’t think they have a place in today’s changing world for a variety of reasons.
• The Last Journey: What’s a thru-hike or similar journey when the trails and the places it goes through get closed every year?
• Planning Trips – All about the AQI – A wise outdoor person plans trips around the new reality of monitoring the Air Quality Index (AQI)

UPDATE 2025 – 

With fire (again) in the La Sal Mountains, evacuations near Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park, and the destruction of iconic places on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, this article has unfortunately become more and more relevant, seven years after I first wrote it.

 

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A post shared by GrandCanyonNPS (@grandcanyonnps)

Of course, the recent cutbacks to the U.S. Forest Service and other agencies will only make the overall situation worse.

Additional material:

Here are some further reading and viewing materials that may interest some.

• Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner

The novel The Water Knife put it:

“There are other books. Lots came later. You can read Fleck or Fishman or Jenkins or others online.” He nodded at the book in her hands. “But I always think people should start with this. It’s the bible when it comes to water.”
“The bible, huh?”
“Old Testament. The beginning of everything. When we thought we could make deserts bloom, and the water would always be there for us. When we thought we could move rivers and control water instead of it controlling us.”

To know water is to understand the West. Start with Cadillac Desert.

• The Dust Bowl by Ken Burns

As I wrote earlier:

“…a documentary of one of the worse ecological disasters in modern history. Certainly not an easy watch, but much like Cadillac Desert, all persons who love the American West should heed the lessons told. When hubris meets natural and financial disasters, a tale is told that cuts deeps. The personal accounts of the survivors of The Dust Bowl are emotionally gripping more than seven decades after the events take place. The Dust Bowl also shows the parallels for today that we are repeating with our modern hubris. Next to The Civil War, The Dust Bowl may very well be Ken Burns’ best documentary. But at a relatively short four hours, more easily watched.”

• Beyond the 100th Meridian by Wallace Stegner

John Wesley Powell predicted much of our current status, even beyond the ongoing climate shifts:

When all the rivers are used, when all the creeks in the ravines, when all the brooks, when all the springs are used, when all the reservoirs along the streams are used, when all the canyon waters are taken up, when all the artesian waters are taken up, when all the wells are sunk or dug that can be dug, there is still not sufficient water to irrigate all this arid region. –John Wesley Powell, 1893. Speech to International Irrigation Congress in Los Angeles

Read the classic account of what caused Powell to formulate many of the thoughts that proved to be prescient.

• Climate Wars by Gwynne Dyer

Despite the sensationalistic title (probably not chosen by the author), the book Climate Wars is an even-handed, informative, and entertaining (!) look at what could happen as the world warms up and experiences climatic changes. But from a geopolitical and military viewpoint. Gwynne Dyer is an award-winning author and military historian from Canada.

• Everything Change makes an interesting and free CliFi anthology series. You can download all three parts of this collection for free. Download – VOLUME ONE  – VOLUME TWO – VOLUME THREE 

In particular, further reading I have mentioned both recently and in the past includes the CliFi story of “Victor and the Fish.” Set in Montana, the story seems less like science fiction and more like reality.